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PROMISE Year 1 annual report (Abridged) Section
1 Executive summary Section 3 Detailed reports of the work packages SECTION 1:1.1 Objectives of the reporting period
· To commence assessment of the seasonal predictability for monsoon climates using ensembles of model integrations. · To investigate the impact of regional SST anomalies on tropical North Africa and the Asian summer monsoon. · To investigate the role of land surface processes and of anomalies in land surface conditions in determining the variability and predictability of monsoon climates. · To evaluate the future impacts of anthropogenic climate change on large-scale changes in the Indian and African monsoons. · To develop the capability to investigate the influence of anthropogenic changes in the land surface (e.g. irrigation, land use, vegetation cover) on monsoon climates. · To develop methods of assessing the impacts of natural and anthropogenic climate change on ground hydrology and water resources for monsoon-affected countries. · To develop crop models to translate climate change scenarios into agronomic impact scenarios for the dry zones of West Africa, and to construct a general methodology to link weather and crop yields on a spatial scale typical of that used by seasonal and climate prediction models. · To establish a database of observed and simulated data on meteorology, hydrology and agriculture for monsoon climates. · To develop the PROMISE website, promote the project through distribution of a brochure and to establish active links with scientists in agricultural centres in monsoon countries. 1.2 Scientific/Technical progress Good progress has been made on all the work packages. The objectives for Year 1, as summarized in Section 1.1, have been met. Figure 1 shows the updated GANTT chart as presented in the original contract. The planned and used manpower and finances are summarized in Table 1. A list of staff working on PROMISE is provided in Table 2. There has been some under-use of financial resources, due mainly to difficulties by UREADMY and MPG.IMET in appointing new staff to work on the project. It is anticipated that this shortfall will be taken up in Years 2 and 3. It is worth noting that this under-use of resources has not impacted on the scientific and technical progress of the project. Scientific/Technical progress in the major work areas is summarized below. Table 1: Planned and used manpower (man months) and finances (Euros)
1.2.1 WP1: Natural variability and predictability of current monsoon climates on seasonal, interannual and interdecadal timescales.
Systematic errors in the simulation of the mean climate and its response to boundary forcing, particularly El Nino, continues to be a major problem. These errors lead to levels of skill for dynamical seasonal predictability of parameters such as rainfall over India and Africa, which are lower than those for statistical methods. In addition, even though skill is generally low, the models show widely varying degrees of reproducibility with some models showing a high level of reproducibility. One of the factors that may influence the level of reproducibility in models is their ability to simulate the sub-seasonal variations in monsoon activity, such as active/break cycles. It has been shown that models have difficulty in capturing the structure and temporal behaviour of the dominant sub-seasonal modes. This is important because it has been demonstrated that a good simulation of these modes may be required for skill at the seasonal timescale. Hence, reduction of errors in the basic simulation of the mean climate and its variability are major prerequisites, requiring improvements in physical parametrizations, particularly those associated with land surface and boundary layer processes. Since the oceans provide the fundamental forcing for seasonal variations in climate, it is important to understand how the climate system responds to SST anomalies and which aspects of the SST field are relevant for predictability. A range of modeling studies has elucidated the relationship between African rainfall and SST anomalies in adjacent oceans, and significant progress has been made in relating regional rainfall variations to specific aspects of the SST anomaly field: · East African rainfall with Indian Ocean SSTs, specifically the Indian Ocean ‘Dipole’. · Guinea rainfall and eastern tropical Atlantic SSTs. · Sahelian rainfall and Mediterranean SSTs. As well as SST, land surface anomalies, particularly those associated with snow and soil moisture, can provide memory to the climate system. Soil moisture and dynamic vegetation have both been demonstrated as important for simulating the observed interannual to decadal variations in Sahel rainfall. Also, some aspects of the observed relationship between Eurasian snow anomalies and Indian rainfall have been successfully reproduced in models. However, the comparison of results from summer simulations with climatological and observed SST suggest that part of the observed correlations may actually arise from the influence of ENSO anomalies on the atmospheric circulation in both winter and summer, rather than from a direct forcing effect of the snow anomalies. 1.2.2 WP2: Assessment of anthropogenic climate change scenarios for monsoon climates. Model results have indicated an intensification of the Indian and West African summer monsoons in a future warmer climate due to the enhanced land-sea contrast and a northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone. Whereas an increase in the atmospheric transport of water vapour by the strengthened monsoon flow is important for Indian monsoon rainfall, precipitation recycling through local land surface evaporation is a major contributor to changes in rainfall over West Africa. An increase of the Indian summer monsoon interannual variability has been simulated from 2030 onwards associated with a more active ENSO cycle. Changes in the intraseasonal precipitation anomalies of the Indian monsoon system due to changes in the frequencies of storms have also been demonstrated. First results suggest that the mechanisms responsible for Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability are more realistically represented in a regional model compared to a GCM. The representation of the land surface is important for the simulated monsoon climates in climate change scenarios and important progress has been made in developing methodologies to investigate the influence of soil hydrology, irrigation and vegetation changes. A sophisticated soil scheme has been developed to improve the simulated seasonal cycle and to enable the impact of irrigation on the Indian climate to be assessed. Irrigation will alter the water balance in the soil and thus affect the surface temperature and climate; it will also alter the levels of river run-off into the ocean and hence the freshwater budget. Detailed satellite mapping of land surface properties has been used to develop new scenarios of global land use for the current climate, which can be implemented in land surface models to investigate the interaction between climate and vegetation. Based on the integrated assessments of IPCC, a methodology has been developed which will produce future changes in land use, which can then be used to investigate their impact on local climate. So far a detailed description of changes in land use over the Sahel has been developed from 1960 and projected into the future. Preliminary sensitivity experiments suggest that past changes in land use may have contributed to a modest reduction in precipitation in this region.
1.2.3 WP3:Impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on ground hydrology and agricultural systems. Substantial progress has been made in developing a water resource model for West Africa that will provide an improved methodology for the assessment of water resources in relation to water demand. The model operates on a spatial scale of 0.50 and incorporates information on river networks, lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, soil types and vegetation cover. The model also includes human-made features (reservoirs, abstractions and long-distance transfers), and allows for the demands of domestic use, industry, irrigation and livestock to be incorporated. This will thus provide the methodology for the assessment of future scenarios of the balance between water availability and demand due to climate change, population growth, urbanisation and increasing per capita consumption. A river routing scheme for India has been developed which covers 13 of the major river catchments. An original aspect of this routing scheme is that it is fully integrated in the land-surface scheme and can thus interact with the soil moisture scheme. This allows the simulation of the impacts of natural and anthropogenic irrigation on the climate, as well as the effects on river flow and water availability. Considerable progress has been made in developing crop models and the methodology required to link crop models with seasonal and climate prediction models. Following a PROMISE workshop at CIRAD, a crop modeling methodology has been agreed which is applicable to sorghum, millet and groundnuts. Comprehensive crop models were deemed too complex for using at regional and larger scales because of the detailed input required, for example, soil characteristics, crop genotype. Simpler models are therefore being developed which are based on these complex models but will still provide information on yield, biomass growth, harvest index and phenology. The feasibility of up-scaling crop models to a spatial scale commensurate with that used in seasonal and climate prediction models has been demonstrated for the case of Indian groundnut yields. This has enabled a methodology to be developed which links crop and seasonal prediction models, and which will provide probabilistic information on potential crop development and yields at the regional level. Greenhouse-gas-induced climate change may significantly affect the productivity of crops and natural vegetation in the tropics. At the same time, land use changes (e.g. deforestation) may alter the character of the land surface and hence lead to further changes in climate. Model experimentation has shown that there may be a positive feedback between the climate and vegetation whereby drying as a result of greenhouse-gas-induced climate change may lead to further vegetation die-back. For example the projected drier conditions in South America associated with anthropogenic climate change caused Amazonian vegetation to change from dense forest to savannah and finally, in some areas, semi-desert. Drying and vegetation die-back were also seen in southern Africa, whereas in India and the Sahel, the long-term mean vegetation state changed little with climate change. 1.2.4 WP4, WP5 and WP6: Promotion, management and coordination of PROMISEThe PROMISE data archive has been established at CINECA with a web-based interface, allowing both data retrieval and direct visualization of a subset of the archived fields (see: http://www.cineca.it/promise/). Examples of model output have been transferred. A list of parameters required by the crop and water resource models has been agreed and documented in consultation with the EU FP5 DEMETER project. An international network of scientists concerned with the impacts of climate variability and change on cropping systems of Africa and India is being established. The visits already undertaken to agricultural research institutes have provided valuable feedback on the key issues that need to be addressed in PROMISE. As well as prediction of crop yield, these include warnings of potential aflatoxin contamination of groundnuts, grain moulds, and the benefits or not of applying expensive inorganic fertilizers. The PROMISE website has been established: http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise. It includes sections on the goals of PROMISE, the work of the European partners and research done as part of PROMISE. The aims of the website are twofold – to promote PROMISE within the scientific community and to aid collaboration between the PROMISE partners. A brochure outlining the aims of PROMISE has been produced and distributed widely both within the EU and internationally. PROMISE has been promoted in India through a poster, distribution of the brochure and by publicizing the website. Plans for the PROMISE Workshop at ICTP are well advanced. By linking it to the ICTP Summer School, attendance from scientists all over the world is guaranteed. Over 100 scientists from 46 countries are expected to attend the Summer School. 1.3 Milestones and Deliverables obtained The following milestones were obtained:
· Adaptation of detailed hydrological model for West Africa and development of a river routing scheme for India.
The following Deliverables were obtained. Note that most deliverables are not due until the end of the project. · D2101: Development of future scenarios of land use changes · D4001: Web-accessible database · D5001: Publication of a brochure outlining the aims of PROMISE and establishment of a mailing list. 1.4 Deviations from the work plan and/or time schedule Only minor adjustments to the time schedule are anticipated as indicated in the GANTT chart (Figure 1). There are no deviations from the work plan.1.5 Coordination of information The PROMISE website has proved a useful tool for administrating PROMISE. There is now a password-protected part of the site, which contains detailed progress reports on the model runs for the data archive. The news part of the site is used to publicize forthcoming meetings and other information of relevance to partners. Individual pages for each partner contain brief progress reports as well as links to conferences attended by partners and publications by each of the research groups. PROMISE partners have also been involved in the project meetings for EU FP5 DEMETER, ERA-40. PROMISE crop modeling activities were presented at the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting Users Meeting in June 2000. During Year 1 the following project meetings were held: · 3-5 April, 2000: Kick-off meeting at the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading. All partners were present and the 34 attendees covered both the meteorological and the agricultural/hydrological aspects of PROMISE. Even at this initial meeting, we had a representative from the user community in Africa (Agrhymet). · 29-31 January 2001: PROMISE Workshop on ‘Developing Crop Models for Use in Annual Crop Yield Forecasting’ at CIRAD, Montpellier, to decide on the detailed, technical and scientific modelling approaches. Participation of 5 scientists from CIRAD, 2 scientists from Agrhymet (Rep. Niger), 1 scientist from CERAAS (Sénégal) and 3 scientists from Reading University.PROMISE was presented at the following international conference: · 21-22 March, 2001: The International Conference on Forecasting Monsoons from Days to Years, New Delhi. PROMISE has supported the following networking trips: · November 2000: M Dingkuhn to CERAAS, Sénégal · January 2001: A Samba and S Traoré of Agrhymet to CIRAD, Montpellier · March 2001: F Maraux (CIRAD) to Agrhymet and CERAAS, Senegal. · March 2001: T. Wheeler (UREADAG) and A. Challinor (UREADMY) to the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), India. 1.6 Difficulties encountered at management and coordination level NONE
Section 3 Detailed reports on each of the work packages The detailed reports of the
work packages are available only to PROMISE partners. Apply to the contacts
given below for access to indifidual reports.
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