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PROMISE WP3100 (Seasonal
forecasting): progress report
Period: 01/04/2000 to 01/09/2000
Partner 2 (CIRAD, with
Agrhymet sub-contracted)
Deliverables for 1st year
:
* None for partner 2
Objectives during 1st year:
* Sub-contracting of Agrhymet
(CILSS, HQ at Niamey, Rep. Of Niger), and establishment of a collaborative
link with CERAAS (Senegal)
* Assessment of the seasonal
yield forecasting system in place for the Sahel (CILSS countries)
* Assessment of necessary
crop model improvements for forecasting, and evaluation of available
models
* Conceptualisation of
an improved crop model for Sahel seasonal forecasting
Activities:
Following the kick-off
meeting for PROMISE on 3-5 April 2000, Mr. Abdallah Samba of Agrhymet
spent 1 week with the CIRAD PROMISE team in Montpellier (F Maraux, M.
Dingkuhn, C Baron, A Begue, A Clopes) to elaborate a workplan, technical
concept and formal contract CIRAD-Agrhymet for the research. This was
achieved.
γγγγγγγγγγγ A collaborative relationship was also established CERAAS
in Senegal, which is a research centre co-ordinated by CORAF and administered
by ISRA, specialised on crop responses to drought. Dr. Benoit Sarr,
agro-meteorologist and crop modeller of CERAAS, could be committed to
contribute to the research on the basis of a bi-lateral arrangement
CERAAS-CIRAD. He spent 6 weeks at CIRAD in June and July 2000, using
funding from CIRAD, to assist in crop model conceptualisation for PROMISE.γγγγ
Results
* Contract discussions
between CIRAD and Agrhymet for PROMISE based collaboration engaged,
still not signed..
* Literature review on
simple crop models adapted to regional applications, including FAO compilations
of international agro-meteorological and crop modelling standards.
* Identification of the
existing water balance/crop model SARRA as point of departure for model
development. The SARRA concept of using two soil water reservoirs (1
fixed, 1 of dynamic depth) will be adapted while separating evaporation
and transpiration.
* Preliminary formulation
of carbon balance and phenological modules, and comparisons among different
algorithms for soil water extraction (Eagleman equation, FAO approach,
others) and LAI-biomass relationships, using existing field data.
* Identification of DELPHI
(object based) as programming platform., and translation of water balance
of SARRA into DELPHI.
* General agreement between
crop modellers and GIS specialists on how to link the new crop model
to GIS.
Prospects
It was agreed that Agrhymet
provide a structured databank with field observations (surveys) for
model validation. CERAAS will also provide field data (mainly experimental)
and conduct, with CIRAD's assistance, an experiment on soil type and
drought dependent root front development (millet and possibly sorghum).
A meeting with physiologists of Reading University will be held in Montpellier
before end of 2000 to co-ordinate cereal and groundnut modelling.