Home / People / CRC / 6-month report

Print version

Selection of multi linear regressors and study of their effectiveness in predicting Sahelian June-September Rainfall have been performed from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over the period 1968-2000. Previous studies (Fontaine et al. 1999) have shown that Sahelian rainfall statistical forecasts/hindcasts based on the sole oceanic surface thermal predictors are more usefull to predict longer term trends than interannual variabilty. The best forecasting statistical schemes are obtainedã when merging predictors based on SST and PBL energy content (Philippon and Fontaine 2000). More precisely Particular April to June meridional patterns of near surface Moist Static Energy Contents south of 10N seem to control the amplitude and timing of the sahelian June-September rainy season (Fontaine and Philippon 2000).

 

References

Fontaine B., Philippon N. 1999, An improvement of June-September rainfall

forecasting in the Sahel based upon region April-May moist static energyã

content (1968-97), geophys res Lett, vol 26, no 14, 2041-2044

 

Fontaine B, Philippon N. 2000, seasonal evolution of boundary layer heat

content

in the West African monsoon from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1968-98),

accepted for publication in Int. J. of Climatol.

 

Philippon N., Fontaine B. 2000, 2000West African June to September

experimental

statistical forecasts based on April values of regional predictors,

Experimental Long-lead Forecast Bulletin, vol 9, 2, June 2000