PROMISE Questionnaire

The PROMISE project is collating expert opinion on hte potential applications of seasonal forecasting from professionals involved in agricultural research. If you have a specific application where our forecasting expertise could help, the please fill in Part I. part II asks some questions outside the context of a specific application. Finally, Part III enables you to give us feedback on the development of a data archive which is being created for use in agricultural and hydrological applications.

Name:

E-mail:

Affiliation:

Research area

I Details of a specific application of seasonal forecasting

Please describe the application you have in mind:

What weather information is required?

What lead time is required?

On what spatial scale is the information required?

Who are the end users?

What level of accuracy is required?

What format is the forecast best presented in?

How can the skill and/or usefulness of the forecast to this application be asessed?

Part II - The applicaiton of seasonal forecasting in general

Spatial scale: What do you consider to be the most coarse spatial forecast resolution which could be of use in agricultural applications?

Lead time: Are there any critical times before or during the growing seasona at which forecasts are particularly important? What lead time is required of such forecasts?

Level of detail: Do forecasts presented in tertiary format (three probabilities: that of above normal, normal and below normal values) contain enough detail for use in agricultural applications? Given that forecasts are proabilistic by nature, is there a better format for them?

Extreme events: What accuracy and lead time is required in the forecasting of extreme events such as flooding drought or heat waves?

Use to growers: How can seasonal forecast information be combined with local knowledge of weather and of crop productivity?

Use in research: How can seasonal forecast information be useful in the context of your research?

Part III - the PROMISE data archive

As part of the PROMISE project we are compiling a data archive. This would include and extensive range of atmospheric and surface variables sampled over a range of frequencies. For more detail contact Emily Black (emily@met.rdg.ac.uk)

How would you use the following types of data in your research?

i) Current climate scenarios:

Re-analysis data: Model output and observations assimilated onto a single grid> This is the most accurate representation of observations.

Seasonal prediction ensemles: 1987-2001 (from the DEMETER project). These are probabilistic forecasts

Future climate scenarios: these are projections of the future climate based on predicted changes in green house gases and aerosol

Spatial scale: Which of the following spatial scales are potentially useful:

300 km, 50 km or other

What variables would be of use (temperature, pressure, humidity etc)?

What frequency of data would you require (daily, six-hourly etc)?

How would you use the data you have described?