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Seasonal prediction of crop yields and assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity - WP3100

Partners involved: CIRAD (lead contractor), UREADMY, the Met Office, UREADAG

The aim of this work package is to develop methods of predicting crop yields on seasonal timescales, and of assessing the impacts of natural and anthropogenic climate change on crop productivity.

Some achievements so far:

  • two versions of a conceptual crop model have been released in DELPHI programming language: one for cereals (sorghum and millet) and one for peanuts. The models accurately simulate crop growth, ground cover and yield under water and radiation limited conditions.

  • Extensive experimental datasets for sorghum have been generated in collaboration with ICRISAT in Mali.

  • the conceptual framework for a new model (HAPPY - Huge Area Potential Peanut Yields) has been developed follow this link for more details.

  • the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and peanut yield in India has been studied using EOF analysis. This has shown that on the subdivisional scale rainfall and peanut yield are well correlated on a subdivisional scale which means that crop models run at this scale can be reasonably driven by subdivisonal scale rainfall data

  • future climate simulations including interactive vegetation have been analysed to examine the possible effects of vegetation feedbacks on tropical climates. The greatest impacts were found to be in the Amazon region where positive feedbacks between drying and vegetation die-back took place.

Publications on this topic arising from PROMISE

Baleux F., A. Begue, J.D. Corbet, D. Rollin, G. Grellet, J.W. White 2001 L'almanach numérique de planification à Madagascar. In : Modélisation des agrosystèmes et aide à la décision. Collection Repères. CIRAD INRA, France.

Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q., Slingo J.M., Grimes D.I.F. 2003 Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Submitted

Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q., Slingo J.M., Grimes D.I.F. 2003 Crop growth modelling for use with large-area input data (published abstract) Journal of Agricultural Science In press

Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Slingo J.M., Grimes D.I.F. and Craufurd P.Q. 2002 Towards the development of integrated weather/crop forecasting systems Journal of Agricultural Science 139 108-109

Challinor A.J., Slingo J.M., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q. and Grimes D.I.F. 2003 Towards a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: determination of the spatial correlation scale Journal of Applied Meteorology 42 175-192

Lo Seen D, M. Areola, A. Clopes, E. Scopel, A. Begue 2001 Coupler modèle agronomique et système d'information géographique. In : Modélisation des agrosystèmes et aide à la décision. Collection Repères. CIRAD INRA, France

Samba A, B. Sarr, C. Baron, E. Gozé, F. Maraux, B. Clerget, M. Dingkuhn 2001 La prévision agricole à l'échelle du Sahel. In: Malézieux E, Trébuil G, Jaeger M (Eds.). Modélisation des agro-écosystèmes et aide à la décision. Cirad and INRA, Montpellier, France, p. 243-262.

Syahbuddin, H. 2001 Effet du changement climatique sur le rendement de l'arachide (Arachis hypogaea L.) dans de cas du Sénégal, réalisé avec le modèle ARPEGE Climat V. 3.0 et SARRA-H. Masters thesis, Météorologie Tropicale, Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, Toulouse, France, 129 pages.

Publications on this topic by PROMISE partners

Wheeler T.R., Chatzialioglou A., Craufurd P.Q., Ellis R.H. and Summerfield R.J. (1997). Dry matter partitioning in groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) exposed to high temperature stress. Crop Science, 37, 1507-1513.

Ferris R., Wheeler T.R., Ellis R.H. and Hadley P. (1998). High temperature stress at anthesis in field-grown crops of wheat. Grain yield and biomass. Annals of Botany, 82, 631-640.

Ferris R., Wheeler T.R., Ellis R.H. and Hadley P. (1999). Seed yield after environmental stress in soybean grown under elevated CO2. Crop Science, 39, 710-718.

Vara Prasad P.V., Craufurd P.Q., Summerfield R.J. and Wheeler T.R. (2000). Effect of short episodes of heat stress on flower production and fruit-set of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). Journal of Experimental Botany, 51, 777-784.

Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q., Ellis R.H., Porter J. R. and Vara Prasad P.V. (2000). Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, in press.

Further information

see:
Work package description in the proposal
Detailed annual report (available to PROMISE partners or with the permission of the lead contractor)
Second annual report (available to PROMISE partners or with the permission of the lead contractor)
Third annual report (available to PROMISE partners or with the permission of the lead contractor)
Final report

or:

contact Emily Black (emily@met.reading.ac.uk)

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