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Seasonal prediction of crop yields and assessment
of climate change impacts on crop productivity - WP3100
Partners involved: CIRAD
(lead contractor), UREADMY, the
Met Office, UREADAG
The aim of this work package is to develop methods of
predicting crop yields on seasonal timescales, and of assessing the
impacts of natural and anthropogenic climate change on crop productivity.
Some achievements so far:
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two versions of a conceptual crop model have been released in DELPHI
programming language: one for cereals (sorghum and millet) and one
for peanuts. The models accurately simulate crop growth, ground
cover and yield under water and radiation limited conditions.
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Extensive experimental datasets for sorghum have been generated
in collaboration with ICRISAT in Mali.
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the conceptual framework for a new model (HAPPY - Huge Area Potential
Peanut Yields) has been developed follow this
link for more details.
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the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and peanut yield
in India has been studied using EOF analysis. This has shown that
on the subdivisional scale rainfall and peanut yield are well correlated
on a subdivisional scale which means that crop models run at this
scale can be reasonably driven by subdivisonal scale rainfall data
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future climate simulations including interactive vegetation have
been analysed to examine the possible effects of vegetation feedbacks
on tropical climates. The greatest impacts were found to be in the
Amazon region where positive feedbacks between drying and vegetation
die-back took place.
Publications on this topic arising from PROMISE
Baleux F., A. Begue, J.D. Corbet, D. Rollin, G. Grellet, J.W. White
2001 L'almanach numérique de planification à Madagascar.
In : Modélisation des agrosystèmes et aide à la
décision. Collection Repères. CIRAD INRA, France.
Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q., Slingo J.M., Grimes D.I.F.
2003 Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for
annual crops Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Submitted
Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q., Slingo J.M., Grimes D.I.F.
2003 Crop growth modelling for use with large-area input data (published
abstract) Journal of Agricultural Science In press
Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Slingo J.M., Grimes D.I.F. and Craufurd
P.Q. 2002 Towards the development of integrated weather/crop forecasting
systems Journal of Agricultural Science 139 108-109
Challinor A.J., Slingo J.M., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q. and Grimes
D.I.F. 2003 Towards a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity
forecasting system: determination of the spatial correlation scale Journal
of Applied Meteorology 42 175-192
Lo Seen D, M. Areola, A. Clopes, E. Scopel, A. Begue 2001 Coupler modèle
agronomique et système d'information géographique. In
: Modélisation des agrosystèmes et aide à la décision.
Collection Repères. CIRAD INRA, France
Samba A, B. Sarr, C. Baron, E. Gozé, F. Maraux, B. Clerget, M.
Dingkuhn 2001 La prévision agricole à l'échelle
du Sahel. In: Malézieux E, Trébuil G, Jaeger M (Eds.).
Modélisation des agro-écosystèmes et aide à
la décision. Cirad and INRA, Montpellier, France, p. 243-262.
Syahbuddin, H. 2001 Effet du changement climatique sur le rendement
de l'arachide (Arachis hypogaea L.) dans de cas du Sénégal,
réalisé avec le modèle ARPEGE Climat V. 3.0 et
SARRA-H. Masters thesis, Météorologie Tropicale, Ecole
Nationale de la Météorologie, Toulouse, France, 129 pages.
Publications on this topic by PROMISE partners
Wheeler T.R., Chatzialioglou
A., Craufurd P.Q., Ellis R.H. and Summerfield R.J. (1997). Dry matter
partitioning in groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) exposed to high temperature
stress. Crop Science, 37, 1507-1513.
Ferris R., Wheeler T.R.,
Ellis R.H. and Hadley P. (1998). High temperature stress at anthesis
in field-grown crops of wheat. Grain yield and biomass. Annals of
Botany, 82, 631-640.
Ferris R., Wheeler T.R.,
Ellis R.H. and Hadley P. (1999). Seed yield after environmental stress
in soybean grown under elevated CO2. Crop Science, 39,
710-718.
Vara Prasad P.V., Craufurd
P.Q., Summerfield R.J. and Wheeler T.R. (2000). Effect of short episodes
of heat stress on flower production and fruit-set of groundnut (Arachis
hypogaea L.). Journal of Experimental Botany, 51, 777-784.
Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q.,
Ellis R.H., Porter J. R. and Vara Prasad P.V. (2000). Temperature variability
and the yield of annual crops. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment,
in press.
Further information
see:
Work package description in the proposal
Detailed
annual report (available to PROMISE partners or with the permission
of the lead contractor)
Second annual report (available
to PROMISE partners or with the permission of the lead contractor)
Third annual report
(available to PROMISE partners or with the permission of the lead contractor)
Final report
or:
contact Emily Black (emily@met.reading.ac.uk)
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