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Sesasonal predictability of monsoon climates - WP1100 Partners involved: DMI (lead contractor), ECMWF, UREADMY PROMISE aims to assess the seasonal predictability for monsoon climates using ensembles of model integrations, and with the application of advanced statistical techniques. In addition, the origins of internally and externally forced predictability will be studied. Key achievements to date:
Publications on this topic arising from PROMISE Becker, B. D., Slingo, J.M., Ferranti, L. and Molteni,
F. 2001 Seasonal predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon: What role
do land surface conditions play? Mausam 52 175-190 Publications on this topic by PROMISE partners Ward, M.N., Folland, C.K.,
Maskell, K., Colman, A., Rowell, D.P. and Lane, K., 1993: Experimental
seasonal forecasting of tropical rainfall at the U.K. Meteorological
Office. In: Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations, Shukla,
J. (Ed.), NATO ASI Series, Vol. I6, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 197-216
Martin, G.M. (2001) K. Arpe, F. Chauvin, L. Ferranti, K. Maynard, J. Polcher, D.B. Stephenson, P. Tschuck (2001) Simulation of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Five European General Circulation Models. Atmospheric Science Letters DOI:10.1006/asle.2000.0004 Martin, G.M. 1999. The simulation of the Asian Summer Monsoon, and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution, in the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125 1499-1525 Martin, G.M. and Soman, M.K. 2000. Effects of changing physical parametrisations on the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon in the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model. Hadley Centre Technical Note No. 17 Available from The Met. Office, London Road, Bracknell, RG12 2SY, U.K. Stephenson D.B., Kumar K., Doblas-Reyes F-J, Royer J.-F., Chauvin F. and Pezzulli S. (1998) Extreme Daily Rainfall Events and their Impact on Ensemble Forecasts of the Indian Monsoon.Monthly Weather Review 127, 1954-1966 Stephenson, D.B., Chauvin F. and Royer J.-F. (1998) Simulation of the Asian Summer Monsoon and its Dependence on Model Horizontal Resolution Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 76, 237-265 Sperber, K. R., J. M. Slingo
and H. Annamalai: Predictability and the relationship between subseasonal
and interannual variability during the Asian Summer Monsoon. Q. J.
R. Meteorol. Soc., in press.
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