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Natural Variability of Monsoon Climates

Work Packages 1000


Workpackage Number:

WP1000

Start date:

Month 0

Lead contractor:

The Met. Office

Person months per partner:

UREADMY: 18

 

MF: 6

 

CNRS-LMD: 12

 

MPG.IMET: 6

 

The Met. Office: 13


Objectives:

To investigate the natural variability of monsoonal systems on seasonal, interannual and interdecadal timescales, using observations and model results, and including the application of advanced statistical techniques. The interaction between various time and space scales will be investigated

Work description:

UREADMY: The interannual variability of the African and Asian Summer Monsoon systems will be investigated using an ensemble of AMIP II integrations and DEMETER seasonal prediction ensembles. The seasonality of both observed and modelled variations in the tropics will be investigated using advanced statistical methods.

MF: The intraseasonal predictability of monsoonal systems will be assessed by applying statistical methods to the results of seasonal forecast experiments.

CNRS-LMD: Decadal variability and its impact on interannual West African monsoon variability and associated teleconnections, especially links to ENSO will be investigated using NCEP and ECMWF 40-year reanalyses. The modulation of intra-seasonal and synoptic scales by large scale forcings at interannual and decadal scales will be studied. The ability of GCMs, forced with observed SSTs, to simulate these scale interactions will be investigated with particular reference to the sensitivity to the land surface scheme.

MPG.IMET: The monsoon in different regions will be investigated to understand their annual and interannual variability, using observational data as well as a whole range of model simulations. Emphasis will be given to the evaluation and simulations with coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Uncoupled high resolution simulations will be investigated with respect to extreme events.

The Met. Office: Variability over North Africa and the Caribbean will be investigated using observational data and model data from SST-forced AGCM simulations of climate variability over the last 50+ years, where possible focusing on the primary growing seasons. Seasonal to interdecadal variations of climate in countries bordering the tropical Atlantic have notable impacts on hydrological and agricultural systems, as well as potentially more catastrophic effects during the hurricane season.

The Met. Office: The sensitivity of the mean and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in model physics, land surface parameters and vertical resolution will be investigated using SST-forced AGCM simulations over the last 50+ years, with fixed vegetation. The impact of introducing seasonally varying vegetation will be investigated.

Deliverables:

D1001: Description of the natural variability of monsoon systems for the current climate, including the interaction between decadal, interannual and intraseasonal timescales

D1002: Assessment of the skill of current climate models forced to represent the natural variability of the monsoon climates.

D1003: Development of advanced statistical techniques for extracting signals of monsoon variability.

Milestones:

Year 1: Commence analysis of the natural variability of monsoon systems in climate simulations forced with observed SSTs, and with initial validation from NCEP reanalyses and ERA-15.

Year 2: Preliminary description of monsoon variability, including decadal timescales, based on ERA-40.

Year 2: Provision of advanced statistical tools.

Year 2: Report on the impact of seasonal vegetation on monsoon simulations.

Year 3: Complete diagnosis of intraseasonal to decadal variability of monsoon climates using ERA-40.

Year 3: Complete diagnosis of natural variability of monsoon systems in climate integrations forced with observed SSTs, including assessment of the effects of model improvements.


 

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