ENVK2-CT1999-00022:
Predictability and Variability of Monsoons and the Agricultural and Hydrological
Impacts of Climate Change (PROMISE) Month 6 Report The project has progressed satisfactorily and no partners
have expressed any difficulties in reaching the milestones as set out
in the Workplan. Summarised below are the principle achievements in each
workpackage. It is confirmed that the PROMISE Workshop and meeting will
be held at ICTP, Trieste during 28 May to 15 June 2001 as part of the
Summer Colloquium on 'Land-Atmosphere Interactions and the Hydrological
Cycle'. Prof. Slingo will be a Co-Director of the Summer Colloquium. COORDINATION WP4000: Development
of the PROMISE Data Archive A subcontract has been negotiated with CINECA and the
PROMISE Data Archive has been established. Rainfall data from the ECMWF
Reanalyses and PROVOST ensembles
have been installed and scripts are being developed to enable web-based
data processing and visualisation (CINECA, ICTP, UREADMY). Data requirements
for the users of climate and seasonal predictions have been agreed with
the partners and with the DEMETER group. They are documented on the PROMISE
website (UREADMY). WP5000: Collaboration
with research institutions in monsoon-affected countries. Links have been established with Agrhymet and CERAAS
in Senegal with a view to developing appropriate crop models (CIRAD).
Through the ICTP Associate Scientist scheme, three institutions in Brazil,
India and the Philippines have been nominated which will allow a number
of funded visits. An associate member from the Kenyan Met. Department
has already visited ICTP and worked on PROMISE (ICTP). ICRISAT in Hydrabhad,
India has been visited and information on relevant crop yields has been
acquired and is being used by PROMISE scientists (UREADAG). WP6000: Project
coordination The PROMISE website has been established (http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise) and
the Monsoons Online site has been further developed and maintained (http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/cag/MOL).
The PROMISE brochure, aimed at non-specialists and users of PROMISE research,
has been published and will be distributed widely. A PROMISE poster has
been produced. RESEARCH WP1000: Natural
variability of monsoon climates. Evidence for intraseasonal variations in the W. African
monsoon on 10-60 day timescales has been found in reanalysis and observational
data (LMD). While modifications to the convective and boundary layer schemes
has led to improvements in the monsoon simulations (The Met. Office),
the onset of the W. African monsoon is still too early by 1-2 months (UREADMY)
leading to major difficultie in predicting the interannual behaviour.
Further, it has been demonstrated that longstanding systematic errors
over the Maritime Continent can have a detrimental effect on the mean
climate and interannual variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon. Part
of the systematic error is associated with a poor representation of the
diurnal cycle (UREADMY). WP1100: Seasonal
predictability of monsoon climates. Following close consultation with the DEMETER group,
a basic archive has been agreed. All further work awaits the DEMETER integrations. WP1200: Sensitivity
of monsoon variability/predictability to SST forcing. The effect of Indian Ocean SSTs on E. African rainfall
has been investigated. It has been shown that the dipole SST mode in the
Indian Ocean can be associated with strong rainfall events (UREADMY).
Model sensitivity experiments have shown that Mediterranean SSTs can have
a significant impact on Sahelian rainfall (The. Met. Office).Using ensembles
of seasonal integrations with the ECMWF model, it has been shown that
whilst the dominant mode of interannual variability is chaotic, the second
mode shows a significant relationship with ENSO demonstrating that there
is potential predictability for the Asian Summer monsoon (ICTP). WP1300: Impact
of land surface processes on tropical climate variability Sensitivity experiments have demonstrated the importance
of soil moisture in influencing monsoon variability on daily to interannual
timescales. Whereas African rainfall increases systematically with increasing
soil wetness, the response of the Indian summer monsoon is less clear
due to the greater contribution from atmospheric moisture convergence
(CNRM). Similarly it has been shown that Sahelian rainfall is controlled
by the near surface moist static energy, confirming the importance of
soil wetness (UB). WP2000: Climate
change scenarios. A control and an IPCC SRES-b2 scenario integration
has been completed for the period 1950 to 2070
and data will be supplied to the PROMISE data archive. The control
integration has a realistic climate and shows very little climate drift
(CNRM). A new version of the LMD Zoom Model with an improved land surface
parametrization has been developed and will be used to provide high resolution
scenarios of climate change over monsoon regions (LMD). It has been demonstrated
that increases in greenhouse gas concentrations intensify the Asian summer
monsoon and its variability (MPI). Changes in the hydrological cycle are being investigated and data
on river run-off for the Indus and Ganges/Brahma-putra from the EC project
ERACC are being acquired (DMI). WP2100: Impact of land use changes on future monsoon climates A land use model for the Sahel has been developed which
partitions the area into fuel-wood, cropland for subsistence and export,
fallow and grazing land and can respond to the demands of the human population
under conditions of variable rainfall. A method for converting these land
use types into the vegetation classifications used in model surface parametrizations
has been developed (NERC). WP3000: Ground
hydrology and water resources for monsoon climates Substantial progress has been made in assembling the
data required for a hydrological model for W. Africa. Flow direction,
river networks, main lakes, reservoirs and wetlands have been identified.
Recent data on irrigated areas have been acquired (NERC). A study of methodologies
for river routeing has been completed with a view to coupling the climate
and hydrological models (LMD). WP3100: Seasonal
prediction of crop yields and assessment of climate change impacts on
crop productivity. Indian groundnut yields for the period 1966-95 have
been acquired for ICRISAT and have been used to perform a detailed study
of the relationship between yield and rainfall on a regional basis. A
dynamic crop model has been tested at various sites (UREADMY, UREADAG).
Following a review of simple crop models adapted to regional applications,
the existing water balance crop model, SARRA,
will be developed further. Modules to handle the carbon cycle and
crop phenology are being formulated using field data (CIRAD). Preliminary
analysis of the climate-vegetation feedbacks operating in climate change
has shown that dieback of the Amazon rainforest is associated with a drying
of Amazonia in response to a warming of Pacific SSTs.
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